Indonesia plans to execute B40 in January

In that case, prices may rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke says

B40 will require extra 3 mln lots feedstock, GAPKI says

Malaysia palm oil benchmark at greatest because mid-2022

India may withdraw import tax hike in the middle of inflation, Mistry states

(Adds expert comments, updates Malaysia's palm oil standard price)

By Bernadette Christina

NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output is forecast to recuperate in 2025 after an anticipated drop this year, however rates are anticipated to remain raised due to scheduled growth of the country's biodiesel required, industry analysts said.

The palm oil criteria cost in Malaysia has actually risen more than 35% this year, raised by sluggish output and Indonesia's plan to increase the necessary domestic biodiesel blend to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to reduce fuel imports.

output next year in top producer Indonesia is anticipated to recuperate by 1.5 million metric lots compared with a projected drop of just over a million tons this year, Julian McGill, handling director at Glenauk Economics, told the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.

Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research firm Oil World, said he expects Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million lots next year after a 2.5 million load drop in 2024.

While Indonesia's output is anticipated to improve, supply from in other places and of other vegetable oils is seen tightening.

Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is expected to dip somewhat next year after increasing by an estimated 1 million loads in 2024.

"We would need a recovery in palm in 2025 due to the fact that combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are declining," Mielke stated.

'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE

The price rise in palm oil in the past 7 weeks has been "frightening" for purchasers, Mielke said, adding that it would rally by 10%-15% in January-March if Indonesia enforces the so-called B40 policy.

The Indonesia Palm Oil Association stated additional feedstock of around 3 million heaps will be required for B40 application, wearing down export supply.

The present palm oil premium has actually already triggered palm to lose market share against other oils, Mielke included.

Malaysian palm oil costs are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric heap in 2025, McGill of Glenauk estimated.

Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the greatest given that mid-2022.

"Sentiment today is red-hot and exceptionally bullish, we need to be careful," stated Dorab Mistry, director at Indian customer goods business Godrej International.

He anticipated the Malaysian cost around 5,000 ringgit and above up until June 2025.

Mielke and Mistry advised Indonesia to

consider postponing

B40 application on concern about its influence on food customers.

Meanwhile, Mistry anticipated leading palm oil importer India to withdraw its

import responsibility walking

imposed from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy; Editing by John Mair, Jane Merriman and Daren Butler)